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Sports

Live updates: Steve Soucie's latest playoff projections

Lincoln-Way Central players get pumped up before the Knights’ game against Lincoln-Way East on Friday, Sept. 21, 2018, at Lincoln-Way East High School in Frankfor.
Lincoln-Way Central players get pumped up before the Knights’ game against Lincoln-Way East on Friday, Sept. 21, 2018, at Lincoln-Way East High School in Frankfor.

12:55 p.m.: So I've lost power at home. Heading to the train station to make my way into the city. Will keep tinkering once I'm aboard.

12:35 p.m.: Revised 5A bracket

North Bracket

(16) Phoenix at (1) Payton

(9) Back of the Yards at (8) Elmwood Park

(13) Rochelle at (4) Montini

(12) Woodstock North at (5) Sycamore

(15) Evergreen Park at (2) Sterling(10) Brooks at (7) Hyde Park

(14) Glenbard South at (3) Rockford Boylan

(11) Amundsen at (6) Wheaton St. Francis

South Bracket

(16) Jerseyville at (1) Hillcrest

(9) Morton at (8) Decatur MacArthur

(13) Rich East at (4) Cahokia

(12) Mount Zion at (5) Carbondale

(15) Rich Central  at (2) Highland

(10) Mascoutah at (7) Marion

(14) Joliet Catholic at (3) Metamora

(11) Champaign Central at (6) Mattoon

12:33 p.m.: Flipped seeds for Edwardsville and Neuqua Valley in 8A field below.

12:31 p.m.: Revised 4A bracket

North Bracket

(16) Raby at (1) IC Catholic

(9) Stillman Valley at (8) Dixon

(13) Elgin St. Edward at (4) Urban Prep-Bronzeville

(12) Chicago Sullivan at (5) Marengo

(15) Wheaton Academy  at (2) Coal City

(10) Johnsburg at (7) Agricultural Science

(14) Plano at (3) Richmond-Burton

(11) Clemente at (6) Genoa-Kingston

South Bracket

(16) Illinois Valley Central at (1) Paris

(9) Effingham at (8) Breese Mater Dei

(13) Breese Central at (4) Rochester

(12) Herrin at (5) Pontiac

(15) Salem at (2) Taylorville

(10) Prairie Central at (7) Freeburg

(14) Olney Richland County at (3) Bishop McNamara

(11) Columbia at (6) Murphysboro

11:10 a.m.: A note from earlier, I was incorrect. Lincoln-Way Central is not tied with Andrew at second stage. Lincoln-Way Central as it stands is seeded ahead of Andrew.

11:09 a.m.: Revised 6A Bracket

North Bracket

(16) Wauconda at (1) Cary-Grove

(9) Von Steuben at (8) Kaneland

(13) Lake Forest at (4) Phillips

(12) St. Ignatius at (5) Prairie Ridge

(15) Reavis at (2) Antioch

(10) Belvidere North at (7) Lakes

(14) Crystal Lake South at (3) Kenwood

(11) Hinsdale South at (6) Niles Notre Dame

South Bracket

(16) Rock Island at (1) Oak Lawn Richards

(9) Dunlap at (8) Yorkville

(13) Peoria Notre Dame at (4) Normal West

(12) Springfield at (5) Shepard

(15) Providence Catholic at (2) Washington

(10) Quincy at (7) Springfield Sacred Heart Griffin

(14) Lemont at (3) Chatham Glenwood(

11) Crete-Monee at (6) Bloomington

10:40 a.m.: Important note about 8A. You cannot break the tie between Minooka, Plainfield South and Oswego East other than by random generator. So those teams could end up on the 12-13-14 seed lines.

10:38 a.m.: Revised 8A Bracket

(32) Zion-Benton at (1) Brother Rice

(17) New Trier at (16) Oak Park-River Forest

(25) Conant at (8) Gurnee Warren

(24) Neuqua Valley at (9) Hinsdale Central

(29) Fremd at (4) Homewood-Flossmoor

(20) Barrington at (13) Plainfield South

(28) Stevenson at (5) Marist

(21) Naperville Central at (12) Minooka

(31) St. Charles East at (2) Lincoln-Way East

(18) Glenbard West at (15) Bartlett

(26) South Elgin at (7) Aurora West

(23) Edwardsville at (10) Evanston

(30) Taft at (3) Oswego

(19) Loyola at (14) Oswego East

(27) Huntley at (6) Maine South

(22) Waubonsie Valley at (11) Bolingbrook

10:15 a.m.: Important note about 7A

There is no way to break a tie between the 2-3-4 seeds other than random generator, so those teams could be on any of those lines. Andrew and Lincoln-Way Central also have tie for seed broken the same way.

10:13 a.m.: Revised 7A bracket

(32) Rockford East at (1) Simeon

(17) Lincoln-Way West at (16) Machesney Park Harlem

(25) Andrew at (8) Hersey

(24) Lincoln-Way Central at (9) Nazareth

(29) Granite City at (4) Glenbard East

(20) Belleville West at (13) Moline

(28) Lincoln Park at (5) Willowbrook

(21) Benet at (12) Maine West

(31) Mount Prospect at (2) Batavia

(18) Hoffman Estates at (15) East St. Louis

(26) T.F. South at (7) Mount Carmel

(23) Lake Zurich at (10) DeKalb

(30) Buffalo Grove at (3) Rockton Hononegah

(19) Glenbrook North at (14) Wheaton Warrenville South

(27) Alton at (6) Rolling Meadows

(22) St. Charles North  at (11) Normal Community

9:32 a.m.: Revised 3A Bracket

North Bracket

(16) Rock Island Alleman at (1) Byron

(9) Princeton at (8) Elmwood

(13) Dwight at (4) Lisle

(12) Oneida ROWVA at (5) North Boone

(15) Herscher at (2) Dunbar

(10) Spring Valley Hall at (7) Clark

(14) Urban Prep-Englewood at (3) Eureka

(11) Wilmington at (6) Monmouth

South Bracket

(16) St. Joseph Ogden at (1) Carlinville

(9) Anna-Jonesboro at (8) West Frankfort

(13) Pleasant Plains at (4) Farmington

(12) Greenville at (5) Beardstown

(15) Wood River East Alton at (2) Fairfield

(10) Paxton  at (7) Vandalia

(14) Newton at (3) Monticello

(11) DuQuoin at (6) Williamsville

9:07 a.m.: Revised 2A Bracket

North Bracket

(16) Watseka at (1) Gibson City-Melvin Sibley

(9) Rockridge at (8) Knoxville

(13) Mercer County at (4) Sterling Newman

(12) West Hancock at (5) Collins

(15) Fieldcrest at (2) Lanark Eastland

(10) Chicago Christian at (7) Hope Academy

(14) Harlan at (3) Orion

(11) Rockford Christian at (6) Clifton Central

South Bracket

(16) Staunton at (1) Illini West

(9) Athens at (8) Warrensburg-Latham

(13) Oakwood at (4) Tuscola

(12) Tri-Valley at (5) Pana

(15) Villa Grove at (2) St. Teresa

(10) Eldorado at (7) Bismarck-Henning

(14) Jacksonville Routt at (3) Maroa-Forsyth

(11) Chester at (6) Nashville

8:45 a.m.: Revised 1A Bracket

North Bracket

(16) Polo at (1) Princeville

(9) Aurora Christian at (8) Kewanee Wethersfield

(13) Fulton at (4) Lena-Winslow

(12) Lewistown at (5) Orr

(15) Orangeville at (2) Ottawa Marquette

(10) Dakota at (7) Stockton

(14) LeRoy at (3) Milledgeville

(11) Kirkland Hiawatha at (6) Forreston

South Bracket

(16) Cerro Gordo at (1) Argenta-Oreana

(9) Cumberland at (8) Fisher

(13) Moweaqua Central A&M at (4) Red Hill

(12) Edwards County at (5) Madison

(15) Georgetown Ridge Farm at (2) Camp Point Central

(10) Carrollton at (7) Sesser-Valier

(14) Greenfield at (3) Triopia

(11) Salt Fork at (6) Arcola

8:42 a.m.: Revised Class 4A Projection

North Bracket

(16) Plano at (1) IC Catholic

(9) Stillman Valley at (8) Dixon

(13) Elgin St. Edward at (4) Urban Prep-Bronzeville

(12) Chicago Sullivan at (5) Marengo

(15) Raby  at (2) Coal City

(10) Johnsburg at (7) Agricultural Science

(14) Wheaton Academy at (3) Richmond-Burton

(11) Clemente at (6) Genoa-Kingston

South Bracket

(16) Illinois Valley Central at (1) Paris

(9) Prairie Central at (8) Freeburg

(13) Breese Central at (4) Rochester

(12) Herrin at (5) Pontiac

(15) Salem at (2) Taylorville

(10) Columbia at (7) Breese Mater Dei

(14) Olney Richland County at (3) Bishop McNamara

(11) Effingham at (6) Murphysboro

2:09 a.m.: New 5A Projection

North Bracket

(16) Evergreen Park at (1) Payton

(9) Back of the Yards at (8) Elmwood Park

(13) Rochelle at (4) Montini

(12) Woodstock North at (5) Sycamore

(15) Phoenix Military at (2) Sterling(10) Brooks at (7) Hyde Park

(14) Glenbard South at (3) Rockford Boylan

(11) Amundsen at (6) Wheaton St. Francis

South Bracket

(16) Jerseyville at (1) Hillcrest

(9) Morton at (8) Decatur MacArthur

(13) Rich East at (4) Cahokia

(12) Mount Zion at (5) Carbondale

(15) Rich Central  at (2) Highland

(10) Mascoutah at (7) Marion

(14) Joliet Catholic at (3) Metamora

(11) Champaign Central at (6) Mattoon

2:07 a.m.: Revised 6A Bracket

North Bracket

(16) Wauconda at (1) Oak Lawn Richards

(9) Kaneland at (8) Lakes

(13) St. Ignatius at (4) Kenwood

(12) Hinsdale South at (5) Phillips

(15) Crystal Lake South at (2) Cary-Grove

(10) Von Steuben at (7) Niles Notre Dame

(14) Lake Forest at (3) Antioch

(11) Belvidere North at (6) Prairie Ridge

South Bracket

(16) Thornton at (1) Washington

(9) Quincy at (8) Yorkville

(13) Lemont  at (4) Shepard

(12) Peoria Notre Dame at (5) Bloomington

(15) Rock Island at (2) Chatham Glenwood

(10) Crete-Monee at (7) Dunlap

(14) Providence Catholic at (3) Normal West

(11) Springfield at (6) Springfield Sacred Heart Griffin

1:09 a.m.: New Class 7A Projection:

(32) Rockford East at (1) Simeon

(17) Lincoln-Way West at (16) Machesney Park Harlem

(25) Andrew at (8) Hersey

(24) Lincoln-Way Central at (9) Nazareth

(29) Reavis at (4) Glenbard East

(20) Glenbrook North at (13) Moline

(28) Buffalo Grove at (5) Willowbrook

(21) Benet at (12) Normal Community

(31) Granite City at (2) Batavia

(18) Hoffman Estates at (15) East St. Louis

(26) T.F. South at (7) Mount Carmel

(23) Lake Zurich at (10) DeKalb

(30) Lincoln Park at (3) Rockton Hononegah

(19) Belleville West at (14) Wheaton Warrenville South

(27) Alton at (6) Rolling Meadows

(22) St. Charles North  at (11) Maine West

12:49 a.m.: New Class 8A Projection:

32) Zion-Benton at (1) Lincoln-Way East

(17) Glenbard West at (16) Oak Park-River Forest

(25) Conant at (8) Gurnee Warren

(24) Edwardsville at (9) Hinsdale Central

(29) Taft at (4) Marist

(20) Barrington at (13) Bartlett

(28) Stevenson at (5) Homewood-Flossmoor

(21) Waubonsie Valley at (12) Minooka

(31) St. Charles East at (2) Brother Rice

(18) New Trier at (15) Oswego East

(26) South Elgin at (7) Aurora West

(23) Neuqua Valley at (10) Evanston

(30) Fremd at (3) Oswego

(19) Loyola at (14) Plainfield South

(27) Huntley at (6) Maine South

(22) Naperville Central at (11) Bolingbrook

12:21 a.m.: All 37's out. All 38's out except for one. Set my field of 256 teams with some Saturday wiggle room. Last team in: Watseka. First team out: Thornton.

11:57 p.m.: Still scoring the new teams in the field to break the ties on the point line. This point line is going up. How high, I'm not sure. But the 36's are definitely done. Anything in the 37-38 range is in play.

11:22 p.m.: Missing four scores from Friday night currently trying to track; I currently have 275 teams left, heading into tonight I believed we would be at 268-269 range. So a lot of teams punched way in, they are all over the enrollment landscape so I'm not sure exactly what it means yet. I do believe the point total will push to most if not all 37's out because of the developments of this night.

11:08 p.m.: Fenton out, 275 teams out

11:07 p.m.: Peru St. Bede out, 277 teams left

11:02 p.m.: Currently have 195 teams with at least six wins, still some work to do. This is pretty high.

11:01 p.m.: Elgin Larkin out, 278 teams left

10:54 p.m.: Schaumburg out

10:53 p.m.: Downers Grove out, 279 teams left

10:46 p.m.: Geneseo out, 280 teams left

10:41 p.m.: Freeport Aquin out, 281 teams left

10:39 p.m.: Status update: Still looking for about 50 results, this is actually pretty good for this point. I think I'll be able to to start making assessments in about an hour. Let's hang out.

10:38 p.m.: Deerfield out, 282 teams left

10:37 p.m.: Danville out, 283 teams left

10:34 p.m.: Downers Grove South out, 284 teams left

10:29 p.m.: Peotone out, 285 teams left

10:27 p.m.: Auburn out, 286 teams left

10:25 p.m.: Winnebago out, 287 teams left

10:21 p.m.: Blue Island Eisenhower out, 288 teams left

10:09 p.m.: Kankakee out, 289 teams left

10:00 p.m.: St. Thomas More out, 290 teams left

9:56 p.m.: Seneca out, 291 teams left

9:55 p.m.: Norridge Ridgewood out, 292 teams left

9:52 p.m.: Wheaton North out, 293 teams left

9:51 p.m.: Peoria out, 294 teams left

9:49 p.m.: Oakland Tri-County is out, 295 teams left

9:42 p.m.: Dundee-Crown is out, 296 teams left

9:40 p.m.: Argo is out, 297 teams left

9:29 p.m.: Jerseyville steals a bid.

9:22 p.m.: Marshall is out, 298 teams left

9:18 p.m.: LeRoy the first official bid stole with win over 7-1 Fisher.

9:12 p.m.: West Prairie out, 299 teams left eligible

9:05 p.m.: Winchester West Central out, 300 teams left eligible

9:04 p.m.: Joliet Catholic snags a 21-17 lead over Niles Notre Dame

8:31 p.m.: 4-4 teams in trouble that by record should not be: Mount Zion

8:29 p.m.: 4-4 teams hanging around in bids to get in: St. Thomas More (down 3),

8:28 p.m.: 4-4 teams making upset bids leading teams with better records: Jerseyville, LeRoy, Winnebago, Rochelle.

7:43 p.m.: Joliet Catholic immediately falls behind 7-0 to Niles Notre Dame. Hilltoppers need to win to get in.

7:39 p.m.: Things not going well for a trio of teams looking to steal bids: Danville, Peoria and Dundee-Crown all trail by at least two touchdowns in their matchups.

7:12 p.m.: Niles Notre Dame standout running back Ty Gavin is in street clothes and not playing this open. This may open the door for Joliet Catholic (4-4) to earn a bid.

7:07 p.m.: Brooks victory over Vocational secures Brooks place in the field as it was its sixth victory. That makes 172 clinched bids, 84 to go. Vocational who drops to 5-4 is now hanging on by a thread as the last team in. Perspectives/Leadership moves into the No. 1 position of teams waiting to see if they get a place. Second on the list is Oneida ROWVA and third is Casey-Westfield.

6:49 p.m.: Geography watch! The previous move doesn't do a ton other than swap in swap outs. But Plano will move from the 4A south bracket to the 4A north bracket.

6:22 p.m.: First actual CPS final on the board and its a doozy. Perspectives Charter defeats Solorio Academy 32-16. Perspectives moves to the 5-win group but still looks to be just short on playoff points. Solorio also has five wins, but its point situation is worse than Perspectives Charter. This opens a bid for Rushville who now moves into the field. Rushville is a 2A team, Fairfield pushes to 3A, we are back to a coin flip to decide who goes to 4A between Clinton and Paris and Chicago Brooks heads to 5A.

5:01 p.m.: Early public league scores of interest: Perspectives leads Solorio 18-16 at halftime. Perspectives has a small shot at a berth at 5-4 if they win, Solorio would become a team likely out on points with a loss. Possible bid opening here which would currently go to Rushville.

Orr leads Ag Science 16-0 in the second quarter. Orr is looking to lock up a top five seed in Class 1A, while Ag Science is still headed into the Class 4A field.

4:32 p.m.: Urban-Prep West forfeits to Von Steuben. Secures first playoff bid in school history for Von Steuben and that makes 171 teams that have officially clinched bids. 85 teams left to lock in.

3:02 p.m.: There are a number of 5-3 teams that pretty much need to collect a sixth win to get into the playoffs. This list includes, but is not limited to, Cambridge-Ridgewood, Rich East, Solorio Academy, Vocational. Dwight, Huntley, Oneida ROWVA, Chicago Christian, Peoria Notre Dame and Rockford Christian.

2:59 p.m.: There are nine Saturday games with impacts on either playoff bound or playoff hopeful teams. Five of those teams need wins Saturday to lock up berths: 4-4's Lincoln Park, Phoenix Military, Urban Prep-Englewood and 5-3 Chicago Sullivan all need wins to ensure slots. 4-4 Dupo has points issues even if they secure a win over 7-1 Madison.

2:38 p.m.: Westmont already has five victories on the season, but still faces a precarious situation in regards to Week 9. The Sentinels do face a Burlington Central (2-6) squad that has been eliminated fom the playoff chase, but Burlington Central is arguably still one of the best teams Westmont has seen this season. The five teams that Westmont has defeated this season have combined for just four wins, three of which came from a team from Canada. However, a win against Burlington Central would advance Westmont to the playoffs with the lowest point total I can ever remember.

2:30 p.m.: Elgin St. Edward is currently 4-4 and could lose tonight's matchup with Norridge Ridgewood and still make the playoffs. St. Edward has already clinched the conference championship in the Metro Suburban Red. Conference champions in leagues that have a minimum of six teams get an automatic bid to the playoffs regardless of record.

2:18 p.m.: There are already 233 teams that have at least five victories. There are 68 teams that begin play tonight with 4-4 records, 31 of those teams have an Week 9 opponent with a better record. There are five games where two 4-4 teams play one another. This also means that we have 238 teams guaranteed to get to five wins, once 18 teams win from the 4-4 group that will officially eliminate any team hoping for a reprieve as a 4-5 at-large team. That should happen around 10 or 10:30 p.m. tonight.

2:01 p.m.: 33 teams are currently projected to collect their fifth loss. Of that group of teams, seven won't likely make the field even if they pick up a sixth victory tonight instead of a fifth loss: they are Dupo, Kankakee, Norridge Ridgewood, Oakland Tri-County, Sciota West Prairie, Winchester West Central. A seventh, Perspectives Leadership, would likely be very close to the point bubble.

1:54 p.m.: We enter the final week of play with 301 teams still eligible for 256 spots. Two teams (Hubbard and Marine) were eliminated Thursday night.

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